The Microsoft-Dell parallel is spot on. Everyone chases the shiny hardware but the real moat is in daily habits. Google owns the entry points to the internet for billions of people. Even if Gemini isnt quite there yet, the distribution advantage is massive. What concerns me though is the circular financing you mentioned with Nvidia. That's the exact pattern we saw before the telecom crash. When companies start investing in their own custmers, the growth numbers become artifical fast.
I'd bet there's lots of artificial figures going on in the market nowadays. AWS's usage increases, Amazon gains billions of market cap. That's based on AI usage of most companies. But in reality, this is not reflecting profit in MANY of those users. So eventually, when this starts to make no sense, there will be a drop of usage in the AI market. I don't think it has to be a "crash" per se. But it'll only make sense to drop for a while. Google's well positioned for this.
The Microsoft-Dell parallel is spot on. Everyone chases the shiny hardware but the real moat is in daily habits. Google owns the entry points to the internet for billions of people. Even if Gemini isnt quite there yet, the distribution advantage is massive. What concerns me though is the circular financing you mentioned with Nvidia. That's the exact pattern we saw before the telecom crash. When companies start investing in their own custmers, the growth numbers become artifical fast.
I'd bet there's lots of artificial figures going on in the market nowadays. AWS's usage increases, Amazon gains billions of market cap. That's based on AI usage of most companies. But in reality, this is not reflecting profit in MANY of those users. So eventually, when this starts to make no sense, there will be a drop of usage in the AI market. I don't think it has to be a "crash" per se. But it'll only make sense to drop for a while. Google's well positioned for this.