Opinion | Google's Path to Overtake Nvidia.
The hardware hype is real. But the real money's in the ecosystem.
TLDR:
Nvidia recently hit $5 trillion (first ever). Now it stands at $4.5 trillion but still, everyone’s impressed. But Google’s got the ecosystem — Search, Gmail, Workspace, Android, billions of daily users.
History lesson: Microsoft beat Dell and IBM because OS > hardware. Same pattern repeating with AI.
Google’s the OS of the internet age. They’ll be bigger than Nvidia.
The Microsoft Lesson Nobody Remembers
In the 90s, hardware companies ruled.
Dell. IBM. Big impressive machines sitting on desks.
Then Microsoft came along. Just software. Just an operating system.
Fast forward ten years. Microsoft’s the most valuable company in the world. Dell and IBM? Not even close.
Why?
Because every computer needed Windows. The hardware was just a vehicle. The OS was the value.
Operating systems ruled valuations during the internet boom.
Nvidia’s Impressive But...
Nvidia → $5 trillion in market value CNN. First company ever.
They’re making $26 billion in net income CNN. Everyone needs their chips. OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon — all buying from Jensen Huang.
Impressive.
But here’s the question: What happens when the AI boom slows down?
There are already bubble concerns. Nvidia’s investing in companies who then use that money to buy Nvidia chips Marketplace. Circular financing. We’ve seen this before in telecom in the early 2000s.
It didn’t end well.
Google’s Playing A Different Game
Google’s Gemini has 450 million monthly active users Google. Growing fast.
But this isn’t about having the best chatbot.
It’s about ecosystem.
Google has:
Search (billions of daily queries)
Gmail (used by basically everyone)
Google Workspace (businesses run on it)
Android (on billions of phones)
YouTube (second largest search engine)
Chrome (most popular browser)
When AI gets baked into all of that? Game over.
41% of Fortune 500 companies already have Gemini embedded in operations SQ Magazine.
Why The OS Always Wins
Hardware gets the attention. Software gets the money.
Nvidia makes the chips. Google makes the thing people actually use.
When you wake up tomorrow, you’re not thinking about Nvidia. You’re opening Google Search. Checking Gmail. Using Maps.
The ecosystem wins. Always has. Always will.
Final Thought
Nvidia’s the first $5 trillion company CNN. Historic.
But I’m betting on Google being bigger by 2030.
Not because Gemini’s better (it’s not, yet). Not because their chips are better (they’re not).
Because Google controls the layer everyone uses. Every single day.
Just like Microsoft beat Dell.
Just like the OS beat the hardware.
History’s rhyming again.
The Microsoft-Dell parallel is spot on. Everyone chases the shiny hardware but the real moat is in daily habits. Google owns the entry points to the internet for billions of people. Even if Gemini isnt quite there yet, the distribution advantage is massive. What concerns me though is the circular financing you mentioned with Nvidia. That's the exact pattern we saw before the telecom crash. When companies start investing in their own custmers, the growth numbers become artifical fast.